Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jun 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3511701s&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 11, CiteID L11701
Mathematics
Probability
2
Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309)
Scientific paper
Observed multidecadal variability (30 yr running means, trends, and moving standard deviations) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the instrumental record is compared to that simulated by two different coupled general circulation models in extended-range control experiments. Simulated NAO exhibits strong low frequency fluctuations, even on multi-centennial time scale. Observed multi-decadal NAO variations agree well with the model variability. Trend probability distribution functions, observed and simulated, were not found to be different with statistical significance. Thus, multi-decadal NAO changes similar to those observed during the instrumental record, including the recent increase in 1965-1995, may be internally generated within the coupled atmosphere-ocean system without considering external forcing.
Jungclaus Johann H.
Latif Mojib
Park Wonsun
Semenov Vladimir A.
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