Intermittent multidecadal-to-centennial fluctuations dominate global temperature evolution over the last millennium

Details Intermittent multidecadal-to-centennial fluctuations dominate global temperature evolution over the last millennium Intermittent multidecadal-to-centennial fluctuations dominate global temperature evolution over the last millennium

Jul 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3714702z&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 14, CiteID L14702

Mathematics

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Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225), Mathematical Geophysics: Wavelet Transform (3255, 4455), Oceanography: Physical: Decadal Ocean Variability (1616, 1635, 3305, 4215), Oceanography: Biological And Chemical: Chemical Tracers

Scientific paper

Observed climate time series covering several centuries are often characterized by fluctuations on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. These are not homogeneously distributed in time: Instead, they appear within irregularly intermittent temporal intervals, whose irregular duration varies, in general, with the signal fluctuation frequency. A similar irregularly intermittent, frequency-dependent appearance of energetic fluctuations is found in long-term Earth system model integrations, consisting of a multi-millennia control experiment (i.e., an unforced simulation) and forced simulations covering the last millennium. Here, for the first time, we investigate the long-term relative importance of internal and externally-driven variability and their possible interferences on Global Surface Temperature (GST). Multidecadal GST fluctuations are mostly associated to internal variability. Externally-forced perturbations acting predominantly on centennial timescales tend to overwhelm such variability and to enhance O(˜200 years) GST fluctuations. Externally-forced perturbations tend also to correspond to major changes in the coherency among internal climate processes, and among them and GST.

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