Interannual Variability in the Mesospheric Quasi-2 day Wave in the NOGAPS-ALPHA High- Altitude Data Assimilation System

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0300 Atmospheric Composition And Structure

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NOGAPS-ALPHA is a global numerical weather prediction and data assimilation system extending from the surface to the upper mesosphere that combines a spectral forecast model with NAVDAS, the NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System. NAVDAS is a 3DVAR system that assimilates conventional meteorological observations in the troposphere and lower stratosphere plus temperature soundings from both the Aura MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) and SABER (Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry) instruments over the region from ˜100-0.006 hPa (˜16-80 km altitude). The resulting meteorological analyses extend from the surface to the upper mesosphere. The assimilation system has been run for the periods of January-February 2006 and 2008. Space-time spectral analysis of the 4-times daily NOGAPS-ALPHA mesospheric wind, temperature, and constituent fields show the global structure and time evolution of westward propagating zonal wavenumber 3 disturbances with periods near 2 days. Peak amplitudes of the quasi-two day wave in mesospheric temperature, meridional wind, and water vapor volume mixing ratio of 8 K, 40 m/s and 0.5 ppmv, respectively, occur during January 2006 in the extratropical summer hemisphere. During January 2008, the corresponding peak 2-day wave amplitudes are less than half of their 2006 values. Stratospheric warmings took place in both January 2006 and January 2008. Planetary wave forcing in the extratropical winter stratosphere leading up to these warmings has been shown to affect the growth and development of the quasi-two day wave in past modeling and observational studies. The NOGAPS- ALPHA analyses indicate that the stronger two-day wave amplitudes in January 2006 can be explained by enhanced planetary wave breaking throughout this period compared to January 2008 , which triggered inertial instabilities near the tropical stratopause that provided additional forcing for the global two-day wave mode.

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