Interannual prediction of the Paraná river

Details Interannual prediction of the Paraná river Interannual prediction of the Paraná river

Nov 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001georl..28.4235r&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 28, Issue 22, p. 4235-4238

Mathematics

Probability

10

Global Change: Climate Dynamics, Hydrology: Hydroclimatology, Hydrology: Runoff And Streamflow, Information Related To Geographic Region

Scientific paper

Interannual-to-decadal predictability of the Paraná river in South America is investigated by extracting near-cyclic components in summer-season streamflows at Corrientes over the period 1904-1997. It is found that oscillatory components with periods of about 2-5, 8 and 17 years are accompanied by statistically significant changes in monthly streamflow. Autoregressive predictive models are constructed for each component. Cross-validated categorical hindcasts based on the 8-yr predicted component are found to yield some skill up to four years in advance for below-average flows. A prediction based upon the 8- and 17-yr components including data up to 1999 suggests increased probability of below-average flows until 2006.

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