Instability of the Ice Free Earth: Dynamics of a Discrete Time Energy Balance Model

Mathematics – Dynamical Systems

Scientific paper

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18 pages, 5 figures

Scientific paper

In late sixties, Mihail Budyko and William Sellers, a Russian and an American climate scientists, independently introduced the concept of Energy Balance Model with ice albedo feedback. Since then many have followed in their footsteps to establish various versions of this model. In this paper, a novel equation is introduced to account for the dynamics of the ice line, and is coupled to Budyko's model. We found that the coupled temperature profile-ice line system has a one dimensional center stable manifold. Furthermore, this conceptual model, that accounts only for feedback from the ice albedo and that should not be used for predictive purposes, suggests that under some climate forcings, the ice free earth is unstable.

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