Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification

Details Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification

Aug 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010georl..3715704b&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 37, Issue 15, CiteID L15704

Mathematics

Logic

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Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Biogeosciences: Carbon Cycling (4806), Oceanography: Biological And Chemical: Biogeochemical Cycles, Processes, And Modeling (0412, 0414, 0793, 1615, 4912), Oceanography: General: Physical And Chemical Properties Of Seawater, Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225)

Scientific paper

This study quantifies the relative impact on future ocean acidification of different aspects of global climate change mitigation policies, such as the year that global emissions peak, how fast they reduce after their peak, and the long term minimum emissions that are possible. Relative to a scenario where emissions peak in 2016 and then decrease by 1% per year, further emissions reductions to 2, 3 and 4% per year lead to the same impact minimum pH (by 2100) if emissions peak 10, 15 and 17 years later respectively. Over the same time scale, non-mitigation scenarios lead to a decrease of global mean surface pH of 7.67 to 7.81. Strong and urgent mitigation, emissions peaking in 2016 and reducing by 5% per year, are shown to limit this minimum to 8.02. Minimum pH over longer timescales, the next 500 years, is largely determined by the minimum emission level that is attainable, owing to its relation with cumulative emissions.

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