Inference of Solar Irradiance Variability from Terrestrial Temperature Changes, 1880--1993: an Astrophysical Application of the Sun-Climate Connection

Details Inference of Solar Irradiance Variability from Terrestrial Temperature Changes, 1880--1993: an Astrophysical Application of the Sun-Climate Connection Inference of Solar Irradiance Variability from Terrestrial Temperature Changes, 1880--1993: an Astrophysical Application of the Sun-Climate Connection

Dec 1996

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1996apj...472..891s&link_type=abstract

Astrophysical Journal v.472, p.891

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

35

Sun: Solar-Terrestrial Relations, Sun: Activity, Earth, Sun: Fundamental Parameters

Scientific paper

Information can be inferred on the timing and amplitude of solar total irradiance changes over t880- t993 by simulating the global terrestrial surface temperature changes produced by these irradiance changes and comparing them with observed temperatures. The profiles of solar irradiance variations used in the climate simulations are adopted from several different proxies: (t) the length of the sunspot cycle, (2) the mean sunspot number, and (3) a composite proxy that includes the two previous indicators plus the equatorial solar rotation rate, the fraction of penumbral spot coverage, and the rate of decay of the sunspot cycle. We use a seasonal energy-conservation climate/upwelling-diffusion ocean model, forced by the assumed profiles of solar total irradiance variations, combined with variations in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Optimized cases imply total irradiance changes during t880-t993 in the range 0.18%-0.77%.
If the solar irradiance profiles found from the climate simulations are required to be consistent with recent satellite observations, then the composite solar profile reconstructed by Hoyt & Schatten, combined with the anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, explains the highest fraction of the variance of observed global mean temperatures. In this case, the solar and greenhouse combination accounts for 92% of the observed long-term temperature variance during t880-t993. The simulation implies that the solar part of the forcing alone would account for 7t% of the global mean temperature variance, compared to 5t% for the greenhouse gases' part alone. It also suggests a solar total irradiance variation of 0.5% during the interval t880-t993. Such an amplitude of solar total irradiance change is consistent with astrophysical limits of brightness changes on timescales of decades to centuries independently derived from observations of solar-type stars (including the Sun).

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