Inductive Reasoning Games as Influenza Vaccination Models: Mean Field Analysis

Details Inductive Reasoning Games as Influenza Vaccination Models: Mean Field Analysis Inductive Reasoning Games as Influenza Vaccination Models: Mean Field Analysis

2006-08-08

arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0608016v1

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

20 pages, 7 figures

Scientific paper

We define and analyze an inductive reasoning game of voluntary yearly vaccination in order to establish whether or not a population of individuals acting in their own self-interest would be able to prevent influenza epidemics. We find that epidemics are rarely prevented. We also find that severe epidemics may occur without the introduction of pandemic strains. We further address the situation where market incentives are introduced to help ameliorating epidemics. Surprisingly, we find that vaccinating families exacerbates epidemics. However, a public health program requesting prepayment of vaccinations may significantly ameliorate influenza epidemics.

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