Improving an Empirical Prediction of the Transit Time of Coronal Mass Ejections from the Sun to the Earth

Details Improving an Empirical Prediction of the Transit Time of Coronal Mass Ejections from the Sun to the Earth Improving an Empirical Prediction of the Transit Time of Coronal Mass Ejections from the Sun to the Earth

May 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agusmsp23a..04b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2005, abstract #SP23A-04

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7513 Coronal Mass Ejections

Scientific paper

At the 2004 AAS/SPD meeting, we presented initial results of an attempt to predict (or forecast) the arrival of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections at Earth. Our initial work, following closely on that of Gopalswamy et al. (2000, 2001), incorporated knowledge of the solar wind conditions at the time of the CME and of the source location. This resulted in an improvement in forecast accuracy over Gopalswamy et al. by 25% (2.6 hours). At the time of presenting these results, we discussed potential improvements to the prediction algorithm. First, we proposed to complete a more sophisticated incorporation of solar wind data. The initial study used the solar wind speed measured at ACE at the time of the launch of the CME as a proxy for the solar wind speed encountered by the CME as it travels towards Earth. In this poster, we improve on this by incorporating the Wang-Sheeley-Arge solar wind speed model to model the actual solar wind encountered by the CME through its entire transit from the Sun to the Earth. Second, the initial study used Sudden Impulse (SI) times as the measure for CME arrival at Earth. While this is a useful measure to use to provide a meaningful forecast, it makes comparison with other transit time predictions more difficult. Therefore, in addition to predicting the time until the SI begins, we also show how well we can predict when the associated shock arrives at L1.

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