Statistics – Computation
Scientific paper
Aug 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3615802v&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 15, CiteID L15802
Statistics
Computation
8
Atmospheric Processes: Global Climate Models (1626, 4928), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology, Atmospheric Processes: General Circulation (1223), Atmospheric Processes: Synoptic-Scale Meteorology, Computational Geophysics: Model Verification And Validation
Scientific paper
Using a series of 46-days hindcasts, this paper shows that the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a significant impact on the statistics of tropical storms generated by a dynamical model. This impact is generally consistent with observations. In particular the risk of landfall over Australia and North America varies significantly with the phases of the MJO, as observed. This suggests that sub-seasonal prediction of the risk of tropical storm landfall should be possible with a dynamical model such as the one used in this study, which has skill in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to 20 days.
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