Impact of major coronal mass ejections on geo-space during September 7 -- 13, 2005

Details Impact of major coronal mass ejections on geo-space during September 7 -- 13, 2005 Impact of major coronal mass ejections on geo-space during September 7 -- 13, 2005

May 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agusmsa21a..02w&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #SA21A-02

Mathematics

Probability

7513 Coronal Mass Ejections (2101), 7519 Flares, 7900 Space Weather, 7954 Magnetic Storms (2788)

Scientific paper

We have analyzed five major CMEs originating from NOAA active region (AR) 808 during the period of September 7 to 13, 2005, when the AR 808 rotated from the east limb to near solar meridian. Several factors that affect the probability of the CMEs' encounter with the Earth are demonstrated. The solar and interplanetary observations suggest that the 2nd and 3rd CMEs, originating from E67 and E47 respectively, encountered the Earth, while the 1st CME originating from E77 missed the Earth, and the last two CMEs, originating from E39 and E10 respectively, probably only grazed the Earth. Based on our ice-cream cone model (Xue et al. 2005a) and CME deflection model (Wang et al. 2004b), we find that the CME span angle and deflection are important for the probability of encountering. The large span angles make middle two CMEs hit the Earth, though their source locations were not close to the solar central meridian. The significant deflection makes the first CME totally missed the Earth though it also had wide span angle. The deflection may also make the last CME nearly missed the Earth though it originated close to the disk center. We suggest that, in order to effectively predict whether a CME will encounter the Earth, the factors of the CME source location, the span angle, and the interplanetary deflection should all be taken into account.

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