Impact of anthropogenic forcing on the Asian summer monsoon as simulated by eight GCMs

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Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Impacts Of Global Change (1225), Global Change: Water Cycles (1836), Atmospheric Processes: Climatology (1616, 1620, 3305, 4215, 8408)

Scientific paper

The response of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) to a transient increase in future anthropogenic radiative forcing is investigated by multi-model global warming experiments. Most models show that, in Asia, the summer monsoon rainfall increases significantly with global warming. On the other hand, the future change in the large-scale flow indicates a weakening of the ASM circulation. Enhanced moisture transport over the Asian summer monsoon region, associated with the increased moisture source from the warmer Indian Ocean, leads to a larger moisture flux convergence, which is responsible for the intensification of the mean rainfall. Pronounced warming over the tropics in the middle-to-upper troposphere causes a reduction in the meridional thermal gradient in the Asian region, which is consistent with the weakened monsoon circulation and eastward shift of the Walker circulation.

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