Hydrological cycle in the upper Mississippi River basin: 20th century simulations by multiple GCMs

Details Hydrological cycle in the upper Mississippi River basin: 20th century simulations by multiple GCMs Hydrological cycle in the upper Mississippi River basin: 20th century simulations by multiple GCMs

Sep 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005georl..3218407t&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 32, Issue 18, CiteID L18407

Mathematics

Logic

2

Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Hydrology: Model Calibration (3333), Hydrology: Modeling, Hydrology: Streamflow

Scientific paper

We used 20th century simulations by nine global climate models (GCMs) to provide input for a streamflow model to simulate baseline hydrologic conditions in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). Statistical tests revealed that streamflow data produced by members of the GCM multi-model ensemble were serially uncorrelated at all lags and formed unimodal distributions and that GCM multi-model results may be used to assess annual streamflow in the UMRB. Although all low-resolution GCMs produced large differences from observations of streamflow and hydrological components simulated by the streamflow model, the nine-member ensemble performed quite well. Results of statistical tests indicate that, of all models used, the high-resolution GCM - the only high-resolution model tested - gives simulated streamflows much closer to observed values, despite the fact that its low-resolution sister model has no advantage over the other seven low-resolution models.

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