How to forecast geomagnetic storms reliably - The characteristics of storms in the rising phase of solar cycle 23

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The solar wind input parameters were studied for geomagnetic disturbed days in which Ap exceeded its average value by using plasma and magnetic field data from various near-Earth satellites. More than 270 events occurred during the time-period 1997 to 2002. The interplanetary and solar characteristics of these events have been summarised at http://alpha.sinp.msu.ru/apev. A unique identification of the corresponding solar sources was not possible for all of the events, but in general they could be classified based on SOHO white-light and EUV observations taken by the LASCO/EIT telescopes into disturbances caused by coronal hole flows and coronal mass ejections or interactions between them. Compression regions caused by stream interactions effects including compressed Alfven-waves are also an important cause of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Our results imply that the forecast of an individual storms does not only require sufficient real-time observations of the solar corona, but as well modelling of the heliospheric situation, finally taking into account a seasonal dependence of the coupling efficiency of the IMF with the Earth’s magnetosphere. The work is supported by grants INTAS-ESA 99-00727 and INTAS 00-752 .

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