How to estimate the effect of an intense meteor shower on human space activities

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Meteors, Meteorites And Tektites, Spacecraft/Atmosphere Interactions, Observation And Data Reduction Techniques

Scientific paper

In the present age, the potential threat to space projects coming from some intense meteor storms has been noticed. Especially, the increasing activities of mankind in space for scientific, commercial and military purposes have led to an increase in safety-related problems about the satellites, space stations and astronauts. Several new techniques for observing meteors and meteor showers have been developed. However, how to estimate even predict the effect of an intense meteor shower should be further studied. The initial definition about a meteor storm based on visual observations with a Zenithal Hourly Rate of over one thousand seems insufficient, since it only means a storm or burst of meteors in numbers. In 2006 the author suggested a synthetical index of the potential threats about intense activities of meteors; however, it is too complex to determine several parameters. In this paper, the author suggests a Special True Number Flux Density ( STNFD). Set a certain energy-limit, or a certain electric-charge-limit, and then calculate the number flux density. Through the comparison between two of the 10 strong meteor showers in recent years it is found that the important factor affecting the space flight security is not only the number of meteoroids, but also their velocities, their average energy and the population index r. Calculations show that Giacobinids, even June Bootids, should be one of the most hazardous meteor showers.

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