How strong is solar cycle 23?

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics

Scientific paper

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Solar Activity Cycles, Sunspot Numbers

Scientific paper

Using a linear statistical model of the monthly smoothed sunspot number of the 26th month and the yearly mean sunspot number of the 3rd year of each solar cyle, the author predicts that Solar Cycle 23 will be one of moderate activity, with a maximum smoothed value of 115.4±14.9 and a maximum yearly mean of 118.9±11.6 and that the year of sunspot maximum is more likely to be 2000, rather than 1999.

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