Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 2012
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2012aas...21915612r&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #219, #156.12
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope operational plan includes release of alerts, within 60 seconds, for all sources that are found to have varied from template images. The number of these alerts has been variously estimated at 105 to 106 per night. Many of these alerts will be for galactic variable stars. The number of galactic variables detected can be estimated from the bottom up, with known statistics for each variable type. Here we take a top-down approach. A galactic synthesis model (Robin et al, 2003) is used to generate a fictitious but statistically valid star list for a given pointing. Analysis of the first 3 months of the Kepler survey (Ciardi et al, 2011) is used to characterize the probability of stellar variability by spectral type, as a function of variability amplitude. With this model and the LSST survey parameters, it is possible to predict that LSST will alert on 105 galactic variable stars each night at intermediate galactic latitude. Most of these sources will be known variables after a few months of operation.
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