Computer Science – Performance
Scientific paper
Dec 2007
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007agufmsm32a..07m&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2007, abstract #SM32A-07
Computer Science
Performance
2101 Coronal Mass Ejections (7513), 2102 Corotating Streams, 2740 Magnetospheric Configuration And Dynamics, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Magnetic Storms And Substorms (7954)
Scientific paper
Accurate geomagnetic field models are crucial to the study of radiation belt phenomena. We quantitatively examine the prediction capability of many external models widely in use. We study two years characterized by very different space weather conditions: 1995 and 2003. The year 1995 exhibited many high-speed streams and co- rotating interaction regions (CIRs), while 2003 included the "Hallowe"en storm," one of the most intense geomagnetic storms recently on record, caused by a coronal mass ejection (CME). The performance of each model, as measured by prediction efficiency and skill score, is evaluated as a function of magnetospheric conditions (reflected by Kp and Dst) and local time. We look in detail at when the models fail and discuss the possible reasons. Not surprisingly, the newer models tend to perform better, and interesting comparisons arise between the performances of the models during CIR- and CME-driven geomagnetic events.
Baker Daniel N.
Gannon J. L.
Gehmeyr Michael
McCollough J. P.
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