Other
Scientific paper
May 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29j.130c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 10, pp. 130-1, CiteID 1492, DOI 10.1029/2001GL013919
Other
Oceanography: General: Climate And Interannual Variability (3309), Oceanography: General: Ocean Prediction, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions (0312, 4504), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical Meteorology
Scientific paper
The upper limit of the predictability of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is examined using ensembles of simulations of a coupled ocean-atmosphere global circulation model which has a relatively realistic ENSO cycle. By making small perturbations to the initial conditions and measuring the rate of divergence of nearby trajectories, it is found that given a perfect model and near perfect initial conditions, ENSO could be usefully predicted, on average, up to 8 months in advance (where ``useful'' is defined for a forecast with an anomaly correlation coefficient of greater than 0.6). This is at the low end of potential predictability estimates obtained using intermediate models. Some ensemble experiments do show potential predictability beyond 12 months, but in others small ``errors'' in the initial conditions can saturate in less than 6 months. The physical mechanisms which underlie the high and low predictable states are briefly examined with a view to predicting the reliability of ENSO forecasts.
Collins Matthew
Frame David
Sinha Bablu
Wilson Christine
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