HIV/AIDS in South Africa: the beginning of the end?

Details HIV/AIDS in South Africa: the beginning of the end? HIV/AIDS in South Africa: the beginning of the end?

2011-09-04

arxiv.org/abs/1109.1170v2

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Quantitative Methods

Two typographical errors have been corrected. Two lines from the bottom of page 1 '2010' has been replaced by '2012'. In the f

Scientific paper

In several countries in southern Africa, including South Africa, the prevalence of HIV remains stubbornly high in spite of considerable efforts to reduce transmission and to provide anti-retroviral therapy (ART). It is important to know the extent to which the high prevalence of HIV reflects the increasing number of people on ART in which case the prevalence of those not on ART may be falling. Unfortunately, direct measures of the proportion of HIV-positive people who are on ART are lacking in most countries and we need to use dynamical models to estimate the impact of ART on the prevalence of HIV. In this paper we show that the current level of ART provision in South Africa has probably reduced the prevalence of HIV among those not on ART by 1.9 million, averted 259 thousand new infections and 428 thousand deaths.

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