Hierarchical analysis of options for lunar-surface power

Statistics – Methodology

Scientific paper

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Laser Propulsion, Lunar Surface Vehicles, Photovoltaic Conversion, Radioisotope Batteries, Regenerative Fuel Cells, Space Power Reactors, Cost Analysis, Lunar Bases

Scientific paper

A decision analysis study was conducted to evaluate potential habitat power concepts for manned lunar-surface operations. The objectives of the study were to rank alternative lunar-surface power systems for the first lunar outpost (FLO). The six alternative power concepts evaluated are the following: photovoltaic with regenerative fuel cell (RFC) storage, solar dynamic with RFC storage, TOPAZ 2 and SP-100 space reactor systems, dynamic isotope power system (DIPS), and laser-beamed power. The analytical hierarchy decision-making process was used for the decision-making methodology. The process provides a systematic approach to managing complex decisions that involve numerous tradeoffs between alternative concepts and evaluation criteria. Safety, risk, performance, lifetime, supportability, special factors, and versatility were selected as the major evaluation criteria. Based on the available information, DIPS was the power system of choice for a 45-day, 12-kWe FLO mission because of its favorable combination of ranking and cost. When launch costs were not considered, the photovoltaic system with RFC storage ranked first. The results of this study reflect the best judgments of the working group, given the set of requirements, the agreed-on set of selection criteria, and the best available concept information.

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