Hazards due to earthquakes and asteroids: synergetic analysis and estimation of global risk

Details Hazards due to earthquakes and asteroids: synergetic analysis and estimation of global risk Hazards due to earthquakes and asteroids: synergetic analysis and estimation of global risk

Jan 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001adspr..28.1169p&link_type=abstract

Advances in Space Research, Volume 28, Issue 8, p. 1169-1174.

Mathematics

Probability

Scientific paper

For the first time the seismic process is treated on the basis of the evolutionary kinetic equations for dispersed media. It is shown that the Gutenberg -Richter relationship N(M(E)) ~ E-y, 1/3200 m, Ek ~ 1025 erg) body falls is discussed. The probability of such a seismic storm in the next 100 yrs for any region of the Earth with R > 103 km from site of fall is ~< 10-4 taking into account the probability (~ 10-2) of impact. The maximum global risk is connected with possible destruction of atomic power stations (APS) and nuclear waste depositories, large chemical plants, dams and etc.

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