Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Nov 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009georl..3621805w&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 36, Issue 21, CiteID L21805
Mathematics
Probability
6
Atmospheric Processes: Clouds And Cloud Feedbacks, Atmospheric Processes: Convective Processes, Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Tropical Meteorology
Scientific paper
We demonstrate a theoretically expected behavior of the tropical sea surface temperature probability density function (PDF) in future and past (Eocene) greenhouse climate simulations. To first order this consists of a shift to warmer temperatures as climate warms, without change of shape of the PDF. The behavior is tied to a shift of the temperature for deep convection onset. Consequently, the threshold for appearance of high clouds and associated radiative forcing shifts along with temperature. An excess entropy coordinate provides a reference to which the onset of deep convection is invariant, and gives a compact description of SST changes and cloud feedbacks suitable for diagnostics and as a basis for simplified climate models. The results underscore that the typically skewed appearance of tropical SST histograms, with a sharp drop-off above some threshold value, should not be taken as evidence for tropical thermostats.
Huber Matthew
Pierrehumbert Raymond T.
Williams Ian N.
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