Statistics – Methodology
Scientific paper
May 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010aas...21640115h&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #216, #401.15
Statistics
Methodology
Scientific paper
Estimates of the global solar photospheric magnetic field distribution are critical for space weather forecasting. These global magnetic charts are the essential data input for accurate modeling of the corona and solar wind, which is vital for gaining the basic understanding necessary to improve forecasting models needed for Air Force operations. In this poster, we describe our efforts and progress toward developing the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric flux Transport (ADAPT) model. ADAPT incorporates the Los Alamos National Laboratory data assimilation methodology with a modified version of the Worden and Harvey photospheric magnetic flux transport model. The flux transport model evolves the observed solar magnetic flux by incorporating rotational, meridional, and super-granular diffusive transport processes when measurements are not available. When new observations are available, the modeled flux is updated using an Ensemble Least Squares (EnLS) estimation method. The data assimilation with EnLS rigorously takes into account model and observational uncertainties. In traditional photospheric magnetic field synoptic maps the field measurements residing at the poles are usually the least reliable because of their close proximity to the limb. This is due to the highly variable horizontal magnetic signal that becomes increasingly prevalent in the field measurements near the solar limb. In ADAPT, the polar fields are filled naturally via the model transport processes. This poster will compare polar fluxes obtained using the ADAPT model with those using more traditional polar correction/fill methods as well as for periods when the poles are well observed.
Arge Charles Nickolos
Harvey Jack W.
Henney Carl John
Koller Josef
MacKenzie Dana
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