Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
May 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agusm.u32a..01e&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2002, abstract #U32A-01
Mathematics
Logic
1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325), 1615 Biogeochemical Processes (4805), 1635 Oceans (4203), 1645 Solid Earth, 1655 Water Cycles (1836)
Scientific paper
The terrestrial biosphere arose at approximately 3.5 Ga, and since the early Archean, evolving life has maintained a dynamic equilibrium with solar energy and resources derived from the lithosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere. This well-integrated system persisted after the emergence of Homo sapiens while we remained in a hunter/gatherer mode. Beginning about 10,000 years ago, settled agriculture allowed for division of labor, and the rise of civilization. World population now exceeds six billion individuals, and is growing at about ninety million annually. By about 2050, demographic estimates put our numbers at 9-10 billion. Approximately 85 percent of humanity now reside in the Developing Nations. Most people desire the increased standard of living now confined to the Industrialized Nations (due largely to exploitation of the planet). The present distribution of wealth is grossly inequitable and politically destabilizing. But can all people be afforded reasonably comfortable lives without destroying planetary habitability? Of the Earth's net primary biological production, humans control about a third, and our share is increasing. The impact on the environment is largely adverse, resulting in heightened air and water pollution, accelerated loss of biodiversity, ecosystem services, topsoil, fisheries, tropical rain forests, and in global warming + sea-level rise. Implications for human welfare and for viability of the web of life are ominous. Modern societies are sustained by the extraction of energy, water, and other Earth materials far beyond renewal rates, limiting future global carrying capacity. Island communities (e. g., Easter Island, Haiti, Madagascar) provide sobering examples of the fate of cultures that overexploit their environments. The biological carrying capacity of the planet is unknown but finite, hence humanity eventually must reach a managed steady state involving efficient, universal resource recovery and world-wide conservation, while preserving ecosystem integrity. Utilization of new resources at or below replenishment rates and near-total recycling of Earth materials can only be accomplished employing inexpensive energy. Unfortunately, the second law of thermodynamics requires that a portion of the mineral resources and most of the spent energy are lost irretrievably. Accordingly, research-spawned technological advances (providing generation and ubiquitous availability of low-environmental-impact, cheap energy) will be essential to preserve anything approaching biospheric equilibrium and Earth system sustainability.
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