Geosynchronous high energy electron (1.2 to 16 MeV): Solar wind correlation analysis

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Correlation, Electron Density (Concentration), High Energy Electrons, Interplanetary Space, Solar Activity, Solar Wind, Trajectories, Data Bases, High Altitude, Linear Systems, Occurrences, Probability Theory, Solar Cycles

Scientific paper

This thesis investigated the relationship between high energy electron (1.2 to 16 MeV) count rates and solar wind velocity. The analysis used daily averages for all variables. Two data sets were examined: the first, slightly after solar maximum; the second, slightly before solar minimum. The electron count rate data came from DOD satellite 1979-053 in geosynchronous orbit while the solar wind data was collected by other satellites directly in the unobstructed solar wind. Methods used to analyze the data were daily average plots, frequency plots, probability plots, descriptive statistics, linear correlation analysis of both original and percentiled data, and event analysis. The solar wind velocity correlates differently with high energy electron count rated depending on where in the solar cycle the solar wind events occur. Through event analysis two to three days prior to a significant rise in high energy (1.2 to 16 MeV) electron count rates, a significant rise in solar wind velocity also occurred. However, due to the low linear correlation results achieved (all R-Squared values were less than 0.50), it is likely that solar wind velocity is only one of several variables determining the occurrences of high energy electron events at earth geosynchronous altitude.

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