Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Dec 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008agufm.u43a0038r&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #U43A-0038
Mathematics
Logic
1225 Global Change From Geodesy (1222, 1622, 1630, 1641, 1645, 4556), 1605 Abrupt/Rapid Climate Change (4901, 8408), 1635 Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513), 3337 Global Climate Models (1626, 4928)
Scientific paper
Many scientists have proposed that geoengineering could be used to artificially cool the planet as a means of reducing CO2-induced climate warming. However, several recent studies have shown some of the potential risks of geoengineering, including negative impacts on stratospheric ozone, the hydrologic cycle and the possibility of rapid climate change in the case of abrupt failure, or rapid decommissioning of geoengineering technology. In this study, we have emulated a geoengineering scenario in the MAGICC climate model, by counteracting the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. We have used a hypothetical scenario of business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, in which geoengineering is implemented at the year 2020, and is removed abruptly after 40 years. By varying the climate sensitivity of the MAGICC model, and using previously published estimates of climate sensitivity likelihoods, we are able to derive a probabilistic prediction of the rate of temperature change following the removal of geoengineering. In a simulation without geoengineering (considering only the A1B AIM emissions scenario) the maximum annual rate of temperature change (in the highest climate sensitivity simulation) was 0.5° C per decade. In the geoengineering simulations the maximum annual rate of temperature change, occurring in the year after geoengineering was stopped, varied from 0.22° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 0.5° C to nearly 8° C per decade for a climate sensitivity of 10° C. The most likely maximum rate of change (corresponding to a climate sensitivity of 2.5° C) was just over 5° C per decade. There is a 99.8 percent probability that the rate of temperature change following the stoppage of geoengineering in this scenario would exceed 3° C per decade. This risk of rapid climate change associated with the use of planetary-scale geoengineering is highly relevant to discussion of climate policies aimed at avoiding "dangerous anthropogenic interference" in the climate system. Many ecosystems would be significantly stressed by the high rates of temperature change shown in this study, which could compromise ecosystems' ability to adapt to climate change There are also possible implications of rapid temperature change for other aspects of the climate system, such as the strength of the meridional overturning circulation. Based on the results of this study, we argue that the risk of rapid climate change following the abrupt removal of geoengineering could constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system.
Matthews Dan
Ross Ashley J.
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