Mathematics – Statistics Theory
Scientific paper
2004-10-05
Annals of Statistics 2004, Vol. 32, No. 4, 1698-1722
Mathematics
Statistics Theory
Published by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org) in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat
Scientific paper
10.1214/009053604000000058
We study a simple learning algorithm for binary classification. Instead of predicting with the best hypothesis in the hypothesis class, that is, the hypothesis that minimizes the training error, our algorithm predicts with a weighted average of all hypotheses, weighted exponentially with respect to their training error. We show that the prediction of this algorithm is much more stable than the prediction of an algorithm that predicts with the best hypothesis. By allowing the algorithm to abstain from predicting on some examples, we show that the predictions it makes when it does not abstain are very reliable. Finally, we show that the probability that the algorithm abstains is comparable to the generalization error of the best hypothesis in the class.
Freund Yoav
Mansour Yishay
Schapire Robert E.
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