Gas flux Estimates: Problems of Scaling from one Volcano and Instantaneous Measurements to Decadal-Millenial Rates for Whole Arc Systems.

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8409 Atmospheric Effects (0370), 8419 Eruption Monitoring (7280), 8450 Planetary Volcanism (5480), 0325 Evolution Of The Atmosphere, 0370 Volcanic Effects (8409)

Scientific paper

We have remote sensing tools to measure volcanic SO2 releases to the atmosphere by volcanoes in terms of kg/s-1 (Rodriguez et al, this session) but to use these data to develop estimates of arc gas release rates to compare with subduction zone rates (subduction factory) is far from straightforward. We have investigated this by considering how to convert the last 20 years of SO2 remote sensing at one Guatemalan volcano to a millenial gas release rate. We have chosen Fuego Volcano as a focal point because much is known about its activity (eruption rates and times) and magma characteristics (composition, intensive parameters, melt inclusion analyses), and because its behavior over the past 500 years consists of frequent eruptions and continual gas emissions. A steady-state rate conversion (20 x 50 = 1000) for Fuego may nonetheless be a basis for considering the whole arc, because it tends to release its volatiles readily. Even with this kind of open vent behavior and abundant helpful lab data we need to use speculative assumptions to get a result. One of these speculations involves excess gas release: Fuego is well known to exhibit this, but data collected in many geochemical studies of Fuego suggest it is highly variable. Lacking understanding of the process which causes the excess leaves us puzzled how to generalize it, even for only one volcanic system. Evaluating the rest of the arc and computing a flux per unit of arc length seems much more difficult than evaluating Fuego alone. Other volcanoes in the arc tend to retain their volatiles (in part for later release) and are therefore not well-estimated from sparse measurements. Another question is whether the relatively constant activity representative exhibited by Fuego is representative of arc activity. Volcanoes with compositional variability and long reposes require integration of robust data over periods much longer than 20 years to determine an accurate rate. Other examples of open vent volcanoes (eg Pacaya) do not seem to behave at all like Fuego. Hydrothermal systems and unerupted magma are further complications. Each volcano in the arc has its own unique story to add to the mix of the arc history. A few examples are explained in detail (Tacana, Santa Maria, Pacaya, Agua).

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