Fuzzy sets - Classification of solar active regions and flare prediction

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics

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Classifying, Fuzzy Sets, Solar Activity, Solar Flares, Magnetic Flux, Radiant Flux Density, Solar Magnetic Field, Stellar Structure, Sunspots

Scientific paper

The following data were compiled for 400 sample solar active regions of 1980: sunspot type, total spot area, magnetic field type, maximum field intensity, peculiar structures, radio flux at 3 cm, and radio flux ratio between 3 cm and 10 cm. These quantities define a generalized vector for each sample point. A fuzzy set analysis resulted in 14 types of active regions. On the basis of fuzzy classification, a fuzzy prediction was made (whether there will be a flare of class 1 or higher on the day following each of the 12 midmonth days of 1981). The result proved to be encouraging.

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