Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy
Scientific paper
Sep 2006
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006jass...23..227k&link_type=abstract
Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences. Vol. 23, no. 3, 227-236
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astronomy
Fractal Dimension, Maximum Sunspot Number, Solar Cycle
Scientific paper
The fractal dimension is a quantitative parameter describing the characteristics of irregular time series. In this study, we use this parameter to analyze the irregular aspects of solar activity and to predict the maximum sunspot number in the following solar cycle by examining time series of the sunspot number. For this, we considered the daily sunspot number since 1850 from SIDC (Solar Influences Data analysis Center) and then estimated cycle variation of the fractal dimension by using Higuchi's method. We examined the relationship between this fractal dimension and the maximum monthly sunspot number in each solar cycle. As a result, we found that there is a strong inverse relationship between the fractal dimension and the maximum monthly sunspot number. By using this relation we predicted the maximum sunspot number in the solar cycle from the fractal dimension of the sunspot numbers during the solar activity increasing phase. The successful prediction is proven by a good correlation (r=0.89) between the observed and predicted maximum sunspot numbers in the solar cycles.
Cho Kyung-Suk
Kim Rita Seungjung
Kim Sung-Won
Moon Yong Jae
Yi Yasha
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