Forecasting the Global and Multi-scale Features of Magnetospheric Dynamics During Substorms

Details Forecasting the Global and Multi-scale Features of Magnetospheric Dynamics During Substorms Forecasting the Global and Multi-scale Features of Magnetospheric Dynamics During Substorms

Dec 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002agufmsm71a0563u&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2002, abstract #SM71A-0563

Mathematics

Probability

2722 Forecasting, 2744 Magnetotail, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

The magnetospheric dynamics during substorms reveals both globally coherent and multi-scale features. The coherent nature of magnetospheric dynamic is evident in a variety of large-scale processes such as plasmoid formation and ejection, large-scale convection, global current systems. However, a number of small-scale substorm phenomena such as MHD turbulence, pseudo breakups, BBFs, etc. have multi-scale nature, viz. they have broad band power spectra in a wide range of perturbation scales. To model such a complex dynamics a combined model STADY is proposed. The model is derived directly from solar wind (VBs) and geomagnetic indices (AL) data using techniques of nonlinear dynamics and statistical physics. The coherent component of magnetospheric dynamics is modeled with the use of local-linear filters (LLF) and yield accurate iterative predictions of the main trend of AL data. However, due to the high dimensional nature of the small-scale component of magnetospheric dynamics LLF fail to predict the abrupt variations and sharp peaks in the data. To model the high dimensional remainder of the time series the probabilistic approach is used. In STADY the probability distribution function of AL-VBs data is calculated in the reconstructed input-output embedding space which yields the range for a predicted AL as well as the likelihood for each value in the range.

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