Forecasting the geomagnetic field at 2005 using Ørsted and observatory data

Details Forecasting the geomagnetic field at 2005 using Ørsted and observatory data Forecasting the geomagnetic field at 2005 using Ørsted and observatory data

Aug 2002

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29oors2c&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 15, pp. ORS ORS 2-, CiteID 8001, DOI 10.1029/2001GL013636

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Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism: Reference Fields (Regional, Global), Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism: Spatial Variations (All Harmonics And Anomalies), Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism: Time Variations-Diurnal To Secular, Geomagnetism And Paleomagnetism: Time Variations-Secular And Long Term

Scientific paper

Spherical harmonic models were derived using observatory data taken since 1995 and Ørsted vector data. Such models were used to predict both the field in 2005 and estimated error surfaces. Using only satellite data taken over the 2-year interval produced unsatisfactory predictions of the field. It was essential to include longer period observations at fixed observatories and other surface data, such as ship-towed data. To accurately determine the field for past epochs it is necessary to use parabolic terms in time to degree n = 12 as well as annual terms to allow for external contributions. However, using only linear terms provided the best accuracy for projections to 2005. Reduction of the complexity of the model to n = 8 tends to smooth over areas devoid of a long period of observation though slightly decreasing the accuracy elsewhere. The best estimates for 2005 using these techniques cannot be more accurate than a few hundred nT at the Earth's surface.

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