Forecasting Solar Coronal Mass Ejections from MDI Magnetograms

Details Forecasting Solar Coronal Mass Ejections from MDI Magnetograms Forecasting Solar Coronal Mass Ejections from MDI Magnetograms

May 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007aas...210.2702f&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society Meeting 210, #27.02; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 39, p.135

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

3

Scientific paper

We have shown in Falconer, Moore, & Gary (2006 ApJ, 644, 1258), from a sample of 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of predominately bipolar active regions, that whether an active region will or will not be CME productive in the next few days is better predicted by measures of the active region’s total nonpotentiality ( 75% prediction success rate) than by measures of either its magnetic twist or its magnetic size ( 65% prediction success rate). Here we show that our two main-neutral-line measures of total nonpotentiality for bipolar active regions are easily generalized to measure multipolar active regions of any degree of magnetic complexity. We find that the generalized measures retain the CME-prediction success rate of the previous measures for bipolar active regions, and have the same CME-prediction success rate for multipolar active regions as for bipolar active regions. One of the generalized measures of total nonpotentiality is obtained from the vertical field component of the vector magnetogram. We show that for active regions within 30 degrees of disk center, similar CME-prediction success rates are obtained when this measure is obtained from the line-of-sight component of the vector magnetogram as though it were the vertical component. We report results for this measure of total nonpotentiality measured from active-region magnetograms from SOHO/MDI, a space-based line-of-sight magnetograph. We find that the CME-prediction success rate remains about 75%. MDI, with its full-disk field of view, 96-minute cadence, and over 10 years of operation with few gaps 1) provides a much larger data set than does the MSFC vector magnetograph, and 2) will allow us to examine whether the magnetic evolution of an active region (e.g., time-rate-of-change of the total nonpotentiality) provides a stronger CME prediction when combined with total nonpotentiality.This work is funded by the NASA LWS TR&T Program and by the NSF SHINE Program.

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