Computer Science – Performance
Scientific paper
Dec 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003agufmsh42a0497d&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2003, abstract #SH42A-0497
Computer Science
Performance
2439 Ionospheric Irregularities, 2447 Modeling And Forecasting, 2463 Plasma Convection, 2475 Polar Cap Ionosphere
Scientific paper
Prediction of scintillation occurrence at high latitudes is a complex problem involving irregularity generation and decay rates, time-dependent coupling between the interplanetary magnetic field and ionospheric electric field, and long-range transport of ionospheric plasma by the varying convection electric field. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility and effectiveness of tracing measurements of large-scale density structures and irregularities detected by satellite instrumentation forward in time along convection trajectories for the purpose of providing specification and short-term forecasts of high-latitude scintillation. Given the few number of satellite observations, our specification or forecast for the entire polar region will combine observations with observed climatology. We also need a benchmark capability to use climatology as a nowcast and forecast if trajectory analysis is unavailable. Such a benchmark will provide the means to assess whether the trajectory analysis provides an increase level of performance. We will present examples of convection tracing using variable E x B drift pattern, discuss practical limits on position extrapolation and scintillation specification posed by uncertainty in the convection pattern and temporal evolution of scintillation-producing features, and discuss the combining of climatology with trajectory tracing. We will present examples of scintillation-related irregularities as observed in situ and discuss techniques for estimating radio wave scintillation on the ground from the in situ observations.
Decker Dwight T.
Pedersen Todd. R.
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