Forecasting Ionospheric Real-time Scintillation Tool (FIRST)

Details Forecasting Ionospheric Real-time Scintillation Tool (FIRST) Forecasting Ionospheric Real-time Scintillation Tool (FIRST)

May 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agusmsa11b..05a&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2009, abstract #SA11B-05

Computer Science

Sound

2411 Electric Fields (2712), 2415 Equatorial Ionosphere, 2437 Ionospheric Dynamics, 2439 Ionospheric Irregularities

Scientific paper

It is well-known that the generation of equatorial, F-region plasma density irregularities, via the Generalized Rayleigh-Taylor instability mechanism is critically dependent on the magnitude of the pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) in upward ExB drift velocity after sunset. These plasma density bubbles that are generated after sunset lead to the scintillation of trans-ionospheric radio wave signals that pass through these bubbles and is commonly referred to as scintillation activity. Communication and Navigation systems can be severely disrupted by these plasma density irregularities. A measure of scintillation activity is given by the S4 Index and a network of Air Force, ground-based UHF and L-band receivers measuring the S4 Index is called the SCIntillation Network Decision Aid (SCINDA) network. After sunset, the height-rise with time of the bottom- side of the F-layer reflects the magnitude of the upward ExB drift velocity. The value of the ionospheric parameter, h'F (the virtual height of the bottom-side F-layer) at 1930 LT reflects the integrated ExB drift effect on lifting the F-layer to an altitude where the Rayleigh-Taylor (R-T) instability mechanism becomes important. It is found that there exists a threshold in the h'F value at 1930 LT and the onset of scintillation activity as measured by the S4 Index value in the Peruvian longitude sector. This h'F threshold value is found to decrease with decreasing F10.7 cm fluxes in a linear manner (R = 0.99). T o examine this relationship, theoretically, we incorporate a suite of first-principle models of the ambient ionosphere (PBMOD) developed at the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) to investigate R-T growth rates and threshold h'F (1930 LT) values as a function of solar cycle activity. In addition, this paper describes a technique for automatically forecasting, in real-time, the occurrence or non-occurrence of scintillation activity that relies on real-time data from a ground-based ionospheric sounder at or near the geomagnetic equator. We describe how FIRST has been developed into a real-time capability for automatically forecasting scintillation activity that is available on Google Earth to all interested parties.

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