Forecasting Interplanetary Shocks Using Energetic Particle Data

Details Forecasting Interplanetary Shocks Using Energetic Particle Data Forecasting Interplanetary Shocks Using Energetic Particle Data

Dec 2004

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2004agufmsh51a0261j&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, abstract #SH51A-0261

Other

2114 Energetic Particles, Heliospheric (7514), 2118 Energetic Particles, Solar, 2139 Interplanetary Shocks

Scientific paper

A key challenge in NASA's new exploration initiative will be developing the capability to reliably predict the arrival of energetic particles from solar storms. We present a method for detecting the approach of CME-generated shocks, which are often accompanied by orders of magnitude increases in the fluxes of energetic particles and electrons at energies considered harmful to astronauts and electronics. We demonstrate that the upstream particle signature of an approaching shock can be observed up to several days ahead of the shock arrival, and we present algorithms for detecting this signature. Our approach is currently the basis of an operational system using Electron Proton Alpha Monitor (EPAM) data from the Advanced Compositoin Explorer (ACE) spacecraft to give real-time warnings and estimated countdowns of particle events approaching 1 AU - see the URL below. We will present energetic particle data from other spacecraft (Wind, for example) which show similar signatures, indicating that our shock forecasting algorithm could be generalized for use with other particle data covering the energy range of about 50 to 2000 keV. Our approach could provide a crucial space weather monitoring component to Mars-bound spacecraft, since it offers continuous monitoring of approaching shocks, with warnings of up to several days prior to a significant event.

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