Forecasting Earth Arrivals of CMEs with Heliospheric Imagers (Invited)

Details Forecasting Earth Arrivals of CMEs with Heliospheric Imagers (Invited) Forecasting Earth Arrivals of CMEs with Heliospheric Imagers (Invited)

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsh54d..05w&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SH54D-05

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7513] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Coronal Mass Ejections, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models

Scientific paper

Two important aspects of operational space weather are: 1) short-term predictions of solar eruptions from solar observables, and 2) the subsequent observing of the launch of a CME and tracking it from the Sun through the heliosphere. Heliospheric imagers (HIs) provide an important new tool for the latter deterministic phase of this process. Currently two HI systems are in use at 1 AU, the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) launched in early 2003 and in Earth orbit and the twin STEREO HIs launched in late 2006 and drifting apart 22.5 deg. per year. During 2010 we have been keeping track of forecasts made of Earth arrival of CMEs using SMEI data. These forecasts are made with either of two models, a SMEI tracking tool developed for the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) or the Tappin-Howard (TH) model (e.g., Howard and Tappin, Space Weather, 2010). For each forecast we record the launch information, the predicted speed and time of arrival of the CME at 1 AU, and the time that the forecast is made. A probability of Earth impact is added based on the calculated CME-Sun-Earth angle. We summarize the results of these predictions. In addition, we briefly discuss similar efforts being made using the STEREO HI observations with a variety of forecast models, including the TH model. We also address the evidence of any short-term solar precursors for these CMEs.

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