Forecast Solar Irradiance Variability on Multiple Time Scales

Details Forecast Solar Irradiance Variability on Multiple Time Scales Forecast Solar Irradiance Variability on Multiple Time Scales

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsa22a0711t&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SA22A-0711

Mathematics

Logic

1241 Satellite Orbits, 1650 Solar Variability, 1739 Solar/Planetary Relationships, 2162 Solar Cycle Variations (7536), 7538 Solar Irradiance

Scientific paper

We report on research that is improving current solar spectral irradiance forecasting capabilities. In particular, the portion of the solar spectrum chosen is that applicable to operational atmospheric density specifications related to low-Earth orbiting satellites. There are six time scales of solar variability for which we are developing forecast algorithms. These include 1-72 hour time scales associated with large flares, 3-14 day Earth-facing solar disk irradiances, 14-28 day solar far side events, 1-6 month active region evolution, 1/2-11 year solar cycle variability, and 1-5 solar cycle climatological specification. Many current algorithms use the first-order assumption of solar irradiance persistence over specific time scales. The basis for forecasting on each of these time derives from a different source. For example, the nowcast, current 24-hour period uses the method of Viereck et al. (2001) where EUV (proxy) = 0.6 MgII (daily) + 0.4 MgII (29-day avg). The 72-hour forecast is generated with an autoregressive technique to determine the trend of the next 3 days. The 14-day forecast simply uses the previous data from 14-days ago to the present epoch. The 28-day forecast uses the previous 28-days of data convolved with a triangular function to reduce noise. The 6-month forecast uses the previous 6-months of data convolved with a 30-day wide triangular function. The 11-year forecast has used the previous 11-years of data similarly convolved. The 55-year forecast uses the mean value of the previous 5 solar cycles. Improvements to these algorithms are demonstrated that will reduce the uncertainty and quantify the variability in each forecast time scale, as these algorithms are used in forecasting solar irradiances for space system operations. Viereck , R., et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1343-1346, 2001.

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