Flare Forecasting Validation

Details Flare Forecasting Validation Flare Forecasting Validation

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh51b2004c&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH51B-2004

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

[7519] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Flares, [7536] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Solar Activity Cycle, [7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models

Scientific paper

The Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has long been the authority in flare forecasting. Final validation results of their flare forecasting techniques from solar cycle 23 will be presented, as well as initial solar cycle 24 results. A thorough comparison of the SWPC's solar cycle 23 results to David Falconers' Mag4 forecasting model will also be presented. Mag4 has the ability to forecast major flares (M and X class), coronal mass ejections, and solar energetic particle events using free magnetic energy in a solar active region. Only the flare forecasting portion of this model is being compared at this time.

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