Fitting Astrometric Data With Markov Chain Monte Carlo: A Tool for Detecting Planetary Signals

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Scientific paper

The NASA Space Interferometry Mission will measure the astrometric procession of nearby stars caused by the orbits of unseen planetary companions. The uncertainty in the orbit of a planetary companion is subject to the number, duration, and span of the observations, among other factors, and is best quantified using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. MCMC fits to astrometric data are analogous to those of radial velocity surveys. MCMC allows non-Gaussian parameter distributions, which for some systems can uncover the correlations between orbital parameters, and can be extended to fit for multiple planet systems. MCMC can also project when the most beneficial measurements should be made for each star, providing SIM with the most efficient observation schedule.

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