First Results of Live Real-Time Radiation Storm Forecasting with SOHO/COSTEP

Computer Science – Performance

Scientific paper

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2194 Instruments And Techniques, 7514 Energetic Particles (2114), 7900 Space Weather, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7984 Space Radiation Environment

Scientific paper

Real-time forecasting of the early intensity of prompt solar energetic protons of hazardous energies (~40 MeV) with relativistic electrons is in place since February 2008. This empirical forecasting method has been developed by utilizing archived data of the last solar maximum as measured by SOHO/COSTEP. It exploits two basic properties: 1) the speed advantage of light-speed electrons over protons at and beyond a hazard energy threshold and 2) the fact that the faster electrons probe the magnetic connection between the acceleration site and the Earth-moon system ahead of the slower ions to come. The acceleration and/or release process of electrons and protons near the Sun appears closely linked given that inverse rise time and intensity between the two particle species are correlated. The purpose of this presentation is to inform of the first live forecasting attempts of this nature, but also to shed light on the performance of the method with archived data of the period from 2004-2007, including proton spectrum forecasting.

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