Finding the Lag Between Two Irregularly Observed Random Walk Series

Statistics – Computation

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Lag estimation methods that have been used in the astronomical literature are reviewed. Some problems are pointed out, particularly the influence of autocorrelation and non-stationarity of the series. If the two series can be modelled as random walks, both these problems can be dealt with efficiently. Maximum likelihood estimation of the random walk and measurement error variances, as well as the lag between the two series, is discussed. Large-sample properties of the estimators are derived. An efficient computational procedure for the likelihood, which exploits the sparseness of the covariance matrix, is briefly described. Results are derived for two sample data sets: observations of the two components of a gravitational lens and photometry of an AGN.

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