Feasibility of ocean fertilization and its impact on future atmospheric CO2 levels

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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Biogeosciences: Carbon Cycling (4806), Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Biogeosciences: Climate Dynamics (1620), Global Change: Oceans (1616, 3305, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928)

Scientific paper

Iron fertilization of macronutrient-rich but biologically unproductive ocean waters has been proposed for sequestering anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2). The first carbon export measurements in the Southern Ocean (SO) during the recent SO-Iron Experiment (SOFeX) yielded ~900 t C exported per 1.26 t Fe added. This allows the first realistic, data-based feasibility assessment of large-scale iron fertilization and corresponding future atmospheric CO2 prognosis. Using various carbon cycle models, we find that if 20% of the world's surface ocean were fertilized 15 times per year until year 2100, it would reduce atmospheric CO2 by $\lesssim$15 ppmv at an expected level of ~700 ppmv for business-as-usual scenarios. Thus, based on the SOFeX results and currently available technology, large-scale oceanic iron fertilization appears not a feasible strategy to sequester anthropogenic CO2.

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