Extreme Geomagnetic Storms and Extreme Relativistic Electron Events

Details Extreme Geomagnetic Storms and Extreme Relativistic Electron Events Extreme Geomagnetic Storms and Extreme Relativistic Electron Events

Dec 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agufmsm31b0772m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2001, abstract #SM31B-0772

Mathematics

Probability

2720 Energetic Particles, Trapped, 2730 Magnetosphere: Inner, 2788 Storms And Substorms

Scientific paper

Both geomagnetic storms and relativistic electron enhancements are associated with the large applied solar wind electric fields produced by high solar wind velocity and southward IMF. Therefore there is the common expectation that extreme geomagnetic storms will be accompanied by extreme relativistic electron events. However, recent geomagnetic storms such as Bastille Day (7-14-2001) and March 31, 2001 produced little or no enhancement of radiation belt electrons. Reeves et al., [Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1817, 1998.] studied the relationship between storms and geosynchronous relativistic electrons during 1992-1995. In that interval the largest electron enhancement occurred during the largest storm although the storm was by no means ``extreme" (Dst = -148 nT) and the correlation between Dst and maximum electron flux was low. More recent observations provide the opportunity to examine the relationship between storms and relativistic electron fluxes for more extreme conditions and for a broader range of conditions. In this paper we identify all geomagnetic storms with Dst < -50 nT during the POLAR mission (1996-present) and examine the relativistic electron response measured by POLAR, SAMPEX, GPS, and by the LANL geosynchronous satellites. We find that for any given storm the probability of a relativistic electron event is approximately 50%. In approximately 25% of the storms the electron fluxes actually decreased and in the remaining 25% there was no significant change. We find that this distribution is approximately the same for moderate, strong, and extreme geomagnetic storms. It is also independent of L-shell. On the other hand extreme relativistic electron events do all occur during geomagnetic storms, but not necessarily the largest ones. For space weather applications this shows that extreme geomagnetic storms may not pose the greatest risk to humans or satellites in space.

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