Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jul 1986
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1986jbis...39..317f&link_type=abstract
British Interplanetary Society, Journal (Interstellar Studies) (ISSN 0007-084X), vol. 39, July 1986, p. 317-324.
Mathematics
Logic
Extrasolar Planets, Extraterrestrial Intelligence, Planetary Systems, Stellar Evolution, Computerized Simulation, Planetary Atmospheres, Planetary Environments
Scientific paper
A series of runs of the Silicon Creation' computer model developed by Fogg (1985) has been analyzed in order to evaluate the probable abundance of planets possessing suitable conditions for the evolution of technologically adept forms of life. The evolutionary simulation encompassed 100,000 disk stars of varying mass, metallicity, and age, and focused on civilizations that may have come into existence on planets over the past 10 to the 10th years of planetary disk history. The frequency of such sites is determined to be 0.00292, and the frequency of planets developing a technological civilization is 0.00009; these figures are two orders of magnitude lower than the most optimistic manipulations of the Drake equation, but not low enough to resolve the Fermi paradox, according to which an alien civilization, if existent, should long ago have colonized the entire Galaxy.
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