Mathematics – Logic
Scientific paper
Jul 2003
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30m..34c&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 13, pp. 34-1, CiteID 1701, DOI 10.1029/2003GL017384
Mathematics
Logic
13
Volcanology: Eruption Monitoring (7280), Volcanology: Eruption Mechanisms, Volcanology: General Or Miscellaneous
Scientific paper
Probabilistic methods play an increasingly important role in volcanic hazards forecasts. Here we show that a probability distribution characterized by competing processes provides an excellent statistical fit (>99% confidence) to repose intervals between 75 vulcanian explosions of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat in September-October, 1997. The excellent fit is explained by a physical model in which there are competing processes operating in the upper volcano conduit on different time scales: pressurization due to rheological stiffening and gas exsolution, and depressurization due to development of permeability and gas escape. Our experience with the Soufrière Hills Volcano eruption sequence suggests that volcanic eruption forecasts are improved by accounting for these different conduit processes explicitly in a single probability model.
Bonadonna C.
Connor Charles B.
Mason R. M.
Sparks Stephen J. R.
Young Simon R.
No associations
LandOfFree
Exploring links between physical and probabilistic models of volcanic eruptions: The Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Exploring links between physical and probabilistic models of volcanic eruptions: The Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Exploring links between physical and probabilistic models of volcanic eruptions: The Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1467535