Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

Details Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23 Examination of Solar Cycle Statistical Model and New Prediction of Solar Cycle 23

Oct 2000

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2000stin...0008882k&link_type=abstract

Technical Report, NASA/TP-2000-210536; L-18020; NAS 1.60:210536

Computer Science

Performance

Solar Cycles, Statistical Analysis, Mathematical Models, Estimating, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Solar Activity Effects, Errors, Correction, Sunspot Cycle, Performance Prediction

Scientific paper

Sunspot numbers in the current solar cycle 23 were estimated by using a statistical model with the accumulating cycle sunspot data based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles from 1 to 22. Since cycle 23 has progressed and the accurate solar minimum occurrence has been defined, the statistical model is validated by comparing the previous prediction with the new measured sunspot number; the improved sunspot projection in short range of future time is made accordingly. The current cycle is expected to have a moderate level of activity. Errors of this model are shown to be self-correcting as cycle observations become available.

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