Evaluating new thermospheric neutral density models with a 30-year satellite drag database

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0325 Evolution Of The Atmosphere, 0355 Thermosphere: Composition And Chemistry, 0358 Thermosphere: Energy Deposition, 1050 Marine Geochemistry (4835, 4850), 1600 Global Change

Scientific paper

Deficiencies in empirical neutral density models used for satellite drag have persisted at about the 15% one-sigma level. Major error sources include the inadequacies of proxy indices used as model drivers. Two new empirical models have recently been developed. The NRLMSISE-00 model combines orbital drag data from the 1960's and early 70's with mass spectrometer and temperature data from the 1970's and 80's. The DTM-2000 model, based on accelerometer measurements of satellite drag, replaces the conventional F10 solar flux proxy with a Mg index. These, and other models used operationally, are validated with a new, independent set of historic data derived for the period 1969-2000. The new database is generated from actual radar tracking observations, rather than from the less accurate historical element sets, to form precise orbit and drag/density data with improved accuracy and resolution. We use data from three satellites, all with perigee near 350 km, and with inclinations between 31 and 78 degrees to evaluate models vs latitude, season and solar flux. A major emphasis is on analyzing differences between modeled and measured density variability as a function of solar activity over three solar cycles.

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