Mathematics – Statistics Theory
Scientific paper
2009-11-18
Annals of Statistics 2009, Vol. 37, No. 6B, 3715-3742
Mathematics
Statistics Theory
Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOS675 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of
Scientific paper
10.1214/08-AOS675
The focus of this paper is on trend estimation for a general state-space model $Y_t=\mu_t+\varepsilon_t$, where the $d$th difference of the trend $\{\mu_t\}$ is assumed to be i.i.d., and the error sequence $\{\varepsilon_t\}$ is assumed to be a mean zero stationary process. A fairly precise asymptotic expression of the mean square error is derived for the estimator obtained by penalizing the $d$th order differences. Optimal rate of convergence is obtained, and it is shown to be "asymptotically equivalent" to a nonparametric estimator of a fixed trend model of smoothness of order $d-0.5$. The results of this paper show that the optimal rate of convergence for the stochastic and nonstochastic cases are different. A criterion for selecting the penalty parameter and degree of difference $d$ is given, along with an application to the global temperature data, which shows that a longer term history has nonlinearities that are important to take into consideration.
Burman Prabir
Shumway Robert H.
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